If the Green Bay Packers can pull off an upset against the Detroit Lions, there would be a slim chance of securing the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage (4 percent, according to The New York Times). That chance would have been greater if the Bears had managed to upset the Lions on Thursday, instead of wasting an opportunity to force overtime due to a critical clock-management error.
Over the past five days, the Packers have taken significant strides toward a playoff spot, defeating the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and the Miami Dolphins on Thursday. With their seventh win in eight games, and a 3-0 record since their bye week, Green Bay has improved to 9-3, compared to last season’s 9-8 record.
After their dominant win over the Dolphins, the Packers’ playoff chances surged to 97 percent, according to NFL.com. The New York Times gives them a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs, a figure that remains unchanged even if they lose to the Lions next Thursday.
Now, the focus shifts from whether the Packers will make the playoffs to which team they will face in the postseason. Currently, Green Bay holds the No. 6 seed, half a game behind the Minnesota Vikings, who will host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, in the race for the No. 5 seed. The Packers are two games ahead of the Washington Commanders, who will host the Titans on Sunday, in the race for the No. 6 spot.
The No. 5 seed will play the worst division winner, which, as of now, is the Atlanta Falcons (6-5), who have lost two straight. The No. 6 seed will face the third-best division winner, currently the Seattle Seahawks (6-5), who have won two consecutive games since their bye. In two weeks, the Packers will visit Seattle.
If Green Bay drops to the No. 7 seed, they would face the second-best division winner, which would likely be the Philadelphia Eagles (9-2), who have won seven straight games and defeated the Packers in Week 1.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the most probable outcome is that Green Bay finishes as the No. 6 seed (52 percent). Their most likely wild-card opponent would be the Atlanta Falcons (30 percent), followed by the Arizona Cardinals (20 percent), Philadelphia Eagles (13 percent), Seattle Seahawks (12 percent), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10 percent).
NFC Playoff Standings
- Detroit Lions: 11-1 (1st place, NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (1st place, NFC East)
- Seattle Seahawks: 6-5 (1st place, NFC West)
- Atlanta Falcons: 6-5 (1st place, NFC South)
- Minnesota Vikings: 9-2 (2nd place, NFC North)
- Green Bay Packers: 9-3 (3rd place, NFC North)
- Washington Commanders: 7-5 (2nd place, NFC East)
Packers’ Remaining Schedule
The Packers have a tough road ahead, as their final five opponents have a combined winning percentage of .596, the sixth toughest in the league, according to Tankathon. Green Bay’s toughest challenges come from the NFC North teams—the Bears, Lions, and Vikings—all of which have tough schedules too.
Here’s a look at the remaining games:
- Week 14: at Detroit Lions (11-1, 10-game win streak)
- Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (6-5, 2-game win streak)
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints (4-7, 2-game win streak before bye)
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (9-2, 4-game win streak)
- Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears (4-8, 6-game losing streak)
Fortunately for Green Bay, quarterback Jordan Love believes the team is playing its best football of the season. “The name of the game for us is playing complementary football, playing off each other and taking advantage of the situations we get,” Love said. “I think that’s when we’re at our best.”
The games at Detroit and at Minnesota will be pivotal in determining their playoff positioning.
If the Packers can upset the Lions, there will still be a slim chance (4 percent) of securing the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. However, the Bears’ failure to beat Detroit on Thursday reduced that chance. Assuming the Lions win the NFC North, the Packers’ matchup with the Vikings in Week 17 will likely decide who claims the No. 5 seed.
“It feels great,” safety Xavier McKinney said of the Packers’ 9-3 record. “I haven’t been 9-3 since I’ve been in the league. It feels amazing, but we’ve still got a lot of work to do. We’ve got a tough division, and we’ve got to get prepared for a big game next week.”
