The New England Patriots kick off the regular season against the Cincinnati Bengals, with the game set for 1 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Bengals are 9.5-point favorites, marking the week’s largest spread, with a game total set at 40.5 points.
Jacoby Brissett secured the starting QB role for the Patriots, beating out rookie Drake Maye, and will face off against Joe Burrow, who returns after a wrist injury ended his season last November. Here’s my take on the Patriots vs. Bengals matchup.
Cincinnati is widely expected to bounce back after missing the playoffs due to Burrow’s injury. Meanwhile, New England is entering a new chapter without Bill Belichick. Here’s how I see the game unfolding:
**Spread:**
I believe 8.5 points is too large for Cincinnati, so I favor New England. If the spread reaches 9 again, I’d bet on the Patriots at +9.
**Moneyline:**
While I think the Bengals are over-favored, I’m not willing to bet on a Patriots win outright.
**Total:**
No bet on the over/under for this game.
**Patriots vs. Bengals Pick:**
Patriots +9
There’s plenty of uncertainty on both sides, particularly with Cincinnati’s offense. Burrow is coming back from injury, and while Ja’Marr Chase is practicing, his game status remains uncertain. Key offensive players, like Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, are no longer with the Bengals. On defense, the Bengals lost D.J. Reader but added Vonn Bell from the Panthers.
For the Patriots, the biggest change is the absence of Belichick, with Jerod Mayo now at the helm. Brissett will start despite New England drafting Maye third overall, likely due to significant turnover at wide receiver and offensive line.
According to Sean Koerner from Action Network, there’s a 5.5-point spread difference between Burrow and Brissett. Other factors like home-field advantage, coaching, and injuries don’t convince me that Cincinnati should be favored by this much.
A final reason to back New England: teams that won six or fewer games the previous year have a 60% success rate against the spread as underdogs in Week 1. I lean toward the Patriots at +8.5 and would bet if it rises to +9.
Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (contract) participated in Friday’s practice, but his status for Sunday’s game remains questionable. Quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) also practiced and is expected to play, while fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) was limited and is considered doubtful for Sunday.
On the Patriots’ side, offensive lineman Sidy Sow (ankle) has been ruled out for the game, and running back Antonio Gibson (hip) was limited in practice, leaving his status uncertain.
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